For Greg Dubuque, filling one tank of his vehicles now costs $1,000. This is a 66% jump from $600 just a couple of months ago, according to the LA Times. In early 2026, diesel prices surged by more than 40% nationally in under two months, Truckstop reports. California saw prices nearing $7.75 per gallon, a 50% rise in a month, while the national average peaked closer to $5.65.
Demand for goods requiring truck transport remains high. However, the economic viability of delivering those goods is rapidly diminishing due to fuel costs. This impacts US fuel costs and truck delivery prices.
Unless fuel prices stabilize or decrease significantly, the US economy will likely experience persistent inflationary pressures and potential supply chain disruptions. Trucking companies will struggle to maintain operations.
Who's Feeling the Squeeze from Rising Fuel Costs?
- One tank of gas for Greg Dubuque's vehicles cost $600 a couple of months ago, and today it costs $1,000, according to the LA Times.
- Yearly operations for a truck running 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, cost around $384,279 with fuel at $2.38 per liter, according to ASM Group Inc.
- This cost rises to $400,684 if fuel increases to $2.72 per liter, ASM Group Inc. states.
The dramatic increase in fuel expenses translates directly into tens of thousands of dollars in additional annual costs for each truck. Many operators cannot easily absorb this burden. Based on Greg Dubuque's experience of a 66% fuel cost jump and California's 50% rise in a month, the current diesel crisis actively culls small, independent trucking operations. This fundamentally restructures the logistics industry towards larger, more resilient players.
The Root Cause of the Surge
Crude oil accounts for roughly 50% of the retail price of diesel, according to Truckstop. The significant portion of crude oil in diesel's retail price means global oil market volatility directly dictates a large part of the trucking industry's operational expenses.
Crude oil comprising only about 50% of diesel's retail price, and annual operational costs for a single truck exceeding $400,000 with modest fuel increases, signals a permanent reset in transportation costs. Consumers will continue to pay more for goods long after crude prices stabilize.
Ripple Effects Across the Economy
The unavoidable rise in transportation costs will inevitably be passed down the supply chain. This leads to higher prices for nearly all consumer goods and services. Trucking companies are already abandoning unprofitable routes, according to NewsNationNow.
This creates regional shortages of essential goods. Low-income consumers are disproportionately burdened as prices increase for everyday items.
What Comes Next for Trucking Companies?
Without significant market correction or policy intervention, trucking companies may be forced to reduce routes, increase surcharges, or even cease operations. This further strains an already fragile supply chain. The vast regional disparity in diesel prices, like California nearing $7.75/gallon while the national average peaks at $5.65, means companies face inconsistent operational costs.
This forces difficult choices about which regions and goods remain economically viable to serve. By Q3 2026, many independent trucking companies will likely abandon more unprofitable routes, further impacting regional supply chains and consumer access to goods.
Understanding Fuel Costs: Your Questions Answered
How will rising fuel prices affect shipping costs in 2026?
Rising fuel prices directly increase shipping costs. Trucking companies often implement fuel surcharges to cover these volatile expenses. This means consumers will see higher prices for goods requiring transport.
What is the current average price of diesel fuel in the US?
The national average of diesel was closer to $5.65 per gallon at recent peaks, according to the LA Times. However, regional prices vary significantly. California, for example, saw prices nearing $7.75 per gallon.
How do fuel surcharges work for trucking companies?
Fuel surcharges are additional fees added to shipping invoices. They help trucking companies offset the fluctuating cost of diesel. These surcharges are typically calculated as a percentage of the base freight rate or a per-mile charge. The federal excise tax on diesel is 24.4 cents per gallon, according to Truckstop.
